Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-13 8.874711 9.841107 10.912295 12.195947 13.703384 15.431200 17.581479
2025-04-20 8.147311 9.529300 11.185052 13.348594 16.152968 19.741761 24.814796
2025-04-27 7.444359 9.008954 10.981015 13.713990 17.514262 22.796472 31.063902
2025-05-04 6.647942 8.232251 10.299646 13.285766 17.655509 24.120614 35.092492
2025-05-11 6.273415 7.943562 10.198365 13.593212 18.829630 27.111017 42.496923
2025-05-18 5.825064 7.500616 9.821954 13.431349 19.236802 28.934842 48.410879
2025-05-25 5.453087 7.124920 9.494248 13.285660 19.621143 30.761917 54.902328
2025-06-01 5.160927 6.834897 9.257944 13.242216 20.149847 32.930808 62.888296
2025-06-08 4.839003 6.475640 8.883827 12.929245 20.152695 34.087202 69.009091
2025-06-15 4.624452 6.258368 8.705683 12.914436 20.680724 36.393032 79.025793
2025-06-22 4.321964 5.889345 8.262834 12.404623 20.207467 36.485038 83.053359
2025-06-29 4.024682 5.512140 7.782930 11.788850 19.454432 35.824184 84.637926
2025-07-06 3.779677 5.211363 7.420593 11.374870 19.102306 36.139948 89.985285
2025-07-13 3.840324 5.387482 7.842552 12.408522 21.851233 44.605392 129.983463
2025-07-20 3.762168 5.337273 7.882639 12.738396 23.174565 49.953406 164.551182
2025-07-27 3.566877 5.087266 7.565715 12.352238 22.835717 50.599000 177.983540
2025-08-03 3.496800 5.036691 7.587860 12.629520 24.075313 56.309102 227.014903
2025-08-10 3.364941 4.876983 7.407827 12.483572 24.278845 58.888927 261.892775
2025-08-17 3.244842 4.730847 7.242613 12.352144 24.499282 61.629513 304.128145
2025-08-24 3.146524 4.616443 7.127117 12.312941 24.950458 65.376970 365.180670
2025-08-31 3.020241 4.448996 6.905747 12.030363 24.721836 66.566762 405.895725
2025-09-07 2.938905 4.354735 6.813329 12.016985 25.218821 70.799325 497.992957
2025-09-14 2.802511 4.160444 6.525939 11.556054 24.417875 69.504177 513.818835